Every day the team at BetQL has you covered with our favorite NRFI picks for today's MLB games. Find which games we love and why we think they are the best NRFI bets for today. You will get our picks, expert analysis, and the best line available. Tail us on our No Runs First Inning picks and let's get six out to cash out!
Every day the team at BetQL has you covered with our favorite NRFI picks for today's MLB games. Find which games we love and why we think they are the best NRFI bets for today. You will get our picks, expert analysis, and the best line available. Tail us on our No Runs First Inning picks and let's get six out to cash out!
Rockies at Pirates NRFI (-125, BetMGM)
Happy Cinco De Mayo to everyone who is going to celebrate today with some nachos, like this guy who is typing up this article. While we're indulging in artery-clogging goodness, let's sweat out some NRFI's today. Yesterday, we gave some of the money that we won on Friday back, losing 1.25u, so let's see if we can earn that back today.
I'll start nice and early with the Rockies and Pirates NRFI today. Colorado will send RHP Ryan Feltner to the hill, who has been awful this season with his 5.13 ERA and 1.47 WHIP. He's also playing in Coors as a home park, so that doesn't help him. However, he gets to play outside of that venue today against a Pirates offense that is just downright pathetic against right-handers. They own a 75 wRC+ against righties, so I wouldn't expect them to be all-world here, even against a pitcher like Feltner.
Pittsburgh will have LHP Bailey Falter taking the hill to counter, and he has been the definition of average so far in 2024. He owns a 4.22 ERA, but a curiously low 0.94 WHIP. Either way you look at it, I find it hard to believe that Colorado is going to really give him trouble. Their offense is also garbage, owning a 78 wRC+ vs. left-handed pitching.
Two bottom-10 offenses squaring off, so I'll take the NRFI here and hope that these pitchers can do their jobs for one inning at least. I like this price of -125 at BetMGM, as FanDuel has this as high as -130 right now.
White Sox at Cardinals NRFI (-136, BetRivers)
Maybe I'm a fool for backing this one again, as it has lost the first two games of this series, but every statistic says that this should be a lower-scoring series.
Chicago will have LHP Garrett Crochet, who despite his rather large 5.97 ERA, has some impressive advanced numbers that say he is due for some positive regression. If logic prevails, he shouldn't have a super difficult time against a St. Louis offense that ranks 28th out of 30 teams against left-handers, with an awful 71 wRC+.
On the other side, RHP Kyle Gibson is on the mound for the Cardinals. I will say, this guy is usually a fade due to his poor advanced numbers, so I am definitely worried about him tossing a turkey to some bozo in this incredibly bad White Sox offense, but hopefully, he can get us one clean inning. As mentioned, Chicago owns a 75 wRC+ vs. right-handers and has a bunch of no-name triple-A players in their lineup.
Even at -136, this seems like a good value. FanDuel has this at -140.
These are some NRFI's today that I would bet, but don't think are worth a full unit play:
Rangers vs. Royals - 1/2u
Marlins vs. Athletics - 1/2u
Tigers vs. Yankees - 1/4u
Blue Jays vs. Nationals - 1/4u
Angels vs. Guardians - 1/4u
Mets vs. Rays - 1/4u
*1/2u = Half Unit
*1/4u = Quarter Unit
In baseball betting, NRFI stands for "No Run First Inning." It's a wager on how many runs will be scored in the first inning, with the focus being on zero runs being scored in the first inning!
Essentially, you're betting for there to be six outs recorded before any runs are scored. NRFI has become a popular betting option because it offers a quick result – you only need to wait for the first inning to be over.
MLB games are a toss-up in the first inning when it comes to scoring. Roughly half the time, no runs are scored by either team in the opening frame. This might seem surprising considering the overall offensive increase in baseball. The reason for this quirk isn't entirely clear, but it happens around 50% of the time.
Winning NRFI bets requires a keen eye on pitching matchups, team situations, and a tiny bit of luck. If you are looking to be more successful at NRFI bets, here are a few ways to improve your odds:
With the 2024 MLB season still young, pinpointing the current best pitchers for No Runs First Inning (NRFI) bets can be tricky. We simply haven't seen enough games from each pitcher to establish a clear trend. However, to help you make informed decisions, we've provided some insights from the 2023 season.
The Miami Marlins dominated No Runs First Inning (NRFI) bets last season for a confluence of reasons:
Strong Pitching Staff: The core statistic behind their success was a dominant pitching staff. Their 97-61 NRFI record translates to a whopping 61% win rate, indicating their pitchers consistently shut down opposing offenses in the first inning.
Low First Inning Runs Scored: The data confirms this - the Marlins allowed an average of only .44 runs in the first inning. This incredibly low number speaks volumes about their own offense's inability to score runs early.
The Marlins averaged a meager .44 runs in the first inning, even worse on the road at .33 runs. This translates to one of the lowest scoring offenses in the league, ranking third-worst with an average of 4.07 runs per game overall.
In essence, the Marlins' weakness became their strength for NRFI bets. Their anemic offense rarely scored early, but their fantastic pitching staff consistently shut down opponents in the first inning, making them the clear leader in NRFI success last season.
Dive deeper into your betting strategy with BetQL's extensive suite of resources, including: