Best NRFI Bets For Today: No Runs First Inning Picks

Best NRFI Bets: April 28

Every day the team at BetQL has you covered with our favorite NRFI picks for today's MLB games. Find which games we love and why we think they are the best NRFI bets for today. You will get our picks, expert analysis, and the best line available. Tail us on our No Runs First Inning picks and let's get six out to cash out!

Nationals at Marlins NRFI (-115, BetMGM)

Yesterday was a very bad day for NRFI's, as over half of the massive slate of games had a YRFI occur. People seem to think that it is more likely overall to not have a run scored in the first, but it is actually 50/50, so these bets are like any other bets. Statistically speaking, the 2nd inning has a lower chance of a run being scored than the first. Of course, since there were so many YRFI's, we didn't have the best day in this article. We finished down 1.75u off of Friday's +2.25u, so we lost most of it. There was a reason I didn't have a full unit play on yesterday's article. Today, I feel we have a much better slate for the NRFI, starting with a full unit play on the Nats and Marlins.

Washington has LHP Patrick Corbin on the mound, and he has been a prime target to bet against for years because of how terrible he has been. This year hasn't been much different for the poor guy with an inflated 6.51 ERA and 1.81 WHIP, but perhaps he can have a solid outing against the league's worst offense against southpaws. Miami owns an incredibly low 50 wRC+ as a lineup vs. left-handers, the worst figure in MLB.

LHP Ryan Weathers is on the hill for the Marlins, and so far, he has been able to keep his baserunners from scoring much on him. He owns a pretty high 1.40 WHIP, but just a 3.16 ERA, so he has limited the damage. The good news for him is that he gets a Nationals offense that is also one of the worst in baseball against lefties, owning a 74 wRC+ against them.

It's a bit of a risk here to make this a full unit play with these two on the bump, but with two bottom-5 offenses against left-handed pitching and a -115 pricetag, I think it is worth the 1u.

Royals at Tigers NRFI (-125, BetRivers)

It doesn't happen often, but today I have TWO full unit NRFI plays. What could go wrong? You might think I'm nuts taking a NRFI with the Royals offense involved, but there is a reason that the price is -125 on this one.

Let's start with Kansas City, who have RHP Michael Wacha on the mound today. He's been pretty average for them, having some good starts and some bad starts to this point and generating a 3.81 ERA. As we all probably already know from how often I talk about them in this article, Detroit has one of the worst offenses in baseball against right-handed pitching. They check in at an 87 wRC+, which is good for 23rd in the league out of 30 teams. While Wacha isn't elite by any means, I think he can give us one good inning here against a bad Tigers offense to start the game.

Detroit has LHP Tarik Skubal on the hill, and he has been exceptional for the Tigers to this point. He has allowed just six earned runs in 29.2 innings of work, with a 1.82 ERA and 0.74 WHIP. It is hard to perform better than what he has done so far this season. The Royals have some talent in their lineup, and normally I wouldn't want to fade them, but they have really struggled against left-handed pitching. They own an 88 wRC+ vs. lefties, so not much better than the Tigers' offense against righties.

Both offenses are ranked in the bottom-10 in their respective splits today, and both pitchers are at least solid. I like our chances here for a lower-scoring affair.

Half & Quarter Unit Bets

These are some NRFI's today that I would bet, but don't think are worth a full unit play:

Cardinals vs. Mets - 1/2u

Reds vs. Rangers - 1/2u

Pirates vs. Giants - 1/2u

D-Backs vs. Mariners - 1/2u

*1/2u = Half Unit

*1/4u = Quarter Unit

What is a NRFI bet?

In baseball betting, NRFI stands for "No Run First Inning." It's a wager on how many runs will be scored in the first inning, with the focus being on zero runs being scored in the first inning!

Essentially, you're betting for there to be six outs recorded before any runs are scored. NRFI has become a popular betting option because it offers a quick result – you only need to wait for the first inning to be over.

How Often are No Runs Scored in the 1st Inning?

MLB games are a toss-up in the first inning when it comes to scoring. Roughly half the time, no runs are scored by either team in the opening frame. This might seem surprising considering the overall offensive increase in baseball. The reason for this quirk isn't entirely clear, but it happens around 50% of the time.

NRFI Betting Tips

Winning NRFI bets requires a keen eye on pitching matchups, team situations, and a tiny bit of luck. If you are looking to be more successful at NRFI bets, here are a few ways to improve your odds:

• Dominant Pitching is Key: Target starting pitchers with a low walk rate and a high strikeout rate. These pitchers limit baserunners and can rack up strikeouts to escape jams quickly. Ideally, these pitchers will have a history of success, not rookies or those coming back from injuries.
• Opposing Lineup Weaknesses: Check for injuries to key hitters, especially at the top of the lineup. A missing power bat can significantly decrease a team's early scoring chances. Additionally, if a team's top hitters are in a slump, it bodes well for an NRFI.
• Consider the Game Conditions: Cold weather or windy ballparks can make hitting difficult, favoring pitchers and potentially leading to fewer runs. Look for games played in ballparks known for being pitcher-friendly.
• Stay Informed: Watch for significant MLB line movement closer to game time. This could indicate a late lineup change favoring the offense, making NRFI less likely.

The Best NRFI Team from Last Year

With the 2024 MLB season still young, pinpointing the current best pitchers for No Runs First Inning (NRFI) bets can be tricky. We simply haven't seen enough games from each pitcher to establish a clear trend. However, to help you make informed decisions, we've provided some insights from the 2023 season.

The Miami Marlins dominated No Runs First Inning (NRFI) bets last season for a confluence of reasons:

Strong Pitching Staff: The core statistic behind their success was a dominant pitching staff. Their 97-61 NRFI record translates to a whopping 61% win rate, indicating their pitchers consistently shut down opposing offenses in the first inning.

• Jesús Luzardo: Luzardo’s First Inning ERA (First Inning Runs Allowed per 9 Innings Pitched) was 2.25, which is a very good mark. He allowed a total of 10 runs during the first inning in his 32 starts, and .88 WHIP. This translates to a .31 runs in the first inning per start. Luzardo was one of the best first inning pitchers in all of baseball.
• Braxton Garrett: Garrett’s First Inning ERA was almost as good but a bit below Luzardo at 3.00. Like Luzardo, Garrett was effective in the first inning last year. In 30 starts last year, Garrett allowed a total of 10 runs. That means per start Braxton gave up an average of .33 runs, which is extremely effective. His .97 WHIP he rarely allowed more than 1 base runner in his starts.
• Sandy Alcantara: Alcantara is well known as a Cy Young candidate, but Alcantara’s First Inning stats are up there with some of the best. His ERA was 3.54, was a bit high for the rest of the staff, but is still respectable. He allowed a total of 11 runs in the first inning of his 28 starts, which means per start he allowed on average .39. Unfortunately Alcantara will be out in the 2024 season, so keep that in mind before placing you NRFI bets on the Marlins
• Edward Cabrera: Cabrera’s First Inning ERA was right behind Luzardo at 2.37. Although he only had 19 starts last season he may have been most effective pitcher out of the group in the first inning. In those 19 starts he only allow an impressive 5 runs in the first inning. His WHIP was a little high at 1.32 in the first inning, so he may have had some luck behind him to put together such a great NRFI year.

Low First Inning Runs Scored: The data confirms this - the Marlins allowed an average of only .44 runs in the first inning. This incredibly low number speaks volumes about their own offense's inability to score runs early.

The Marlins averaged a meager .44 runs in the first inning, even worse on the road at .33 runs. This translates to one of the lowest scoring offenses in the league, ranking third-worst with an average of 4.07 runs per game overall.

In essence, the Marlins' weakness became their strength for NRFI bets. Their anemic offense rarely scored early, but their fantastic pitching staff consistently shut down opponents in the first inning, making them the clear leader in NRFI success last season.

The Best Sportsbooks to bet on No Runs First Inning

1. DraftKings: Offers a user-friendly interface with a wide range of NRFI betting options and competitive odds.
2. FanDuel: Provides daily NRFI promotions and boosts, making it attractive for maximizing potential returns.
3. Caesars Sportsbook: Rewards bettors with Caesars Rewards points for every NRFI wager, perfect for building long-term value.
4. BetMGM: Known for offering competitive lines and enticing new user bonuses that can be used on NRFI bets.

Need more Betting Picks?

Dive deeper into your betting strategy with BetQL's extensive suite of resources, including:

• MLB Computer Picks: Leverage the power of our advanced model to gain insights on potential winning MLB bets.
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• MLB Prop Picks: Discover BetQL's expert picks for various player and game-specific MLB prop bets.
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• NBA Over/Unders: Gain valuable analysis and predictions for NBA total point line bets.